lichess.org
Donate

Bye Bye Greece

#10 repost:

All governments are.

But what is happening in Greece is completely disgusting - they're fucking up a country purely on an ideological basis. Greece has voted OXI, or no, and now what?

Germany is exceptionally annoyed, as is most of the eurozone. There are some conciliatory noises from France. But if Greece's main creditors do now give Tsipras a more favourable deal, what will stop Ireland, Spain and Portugal from using the exact same tactics to also get a better deal, and then Malta, Cyprus, etc? In addition, there is a rising sentiment within the eurozone of disgust towards the Greek government - and perhaps now also the Greek people - for voting this way and leaving Europe in the lurch.

The IMF and ECB are both very frustrated with Greece. The IMF's future is now potentially at risk, and following the default will not risk lending more money to Greece without significant restructuring of the Greek economy. Similarly, analysts suggest that the ECB will refuse to give Greek banks more liquidity on Monday - only maintaining enough emergency cash to cover essential services such as hospitals and education.

What this government has managed to do is completely destroy a country, and any goodwill. This will not give them a better deal. European countries cannot give a better deal without a domino effect and frustration within their electorates occurring. The ECB and IMF are now looking at losing an awful lot of money, and their bottom line cannot allow that - therefore they will not risk it with a Greek government which is adverse to any significant restructuring.

I feel exceptionally sorry for the Greek people who have so much to endure through, and have already suffered through a contraction to 25% of their GDP.

#11 is the tl;dr
(NB pinned to prevent multiple Greece threads cropping up).
I expected a "yes" outcome. I'm surprised. There's no easy road in any direction, though.
We need a greek debt haircut. Actually we need a global debt haircut (Then a restart with stricter rules). And we need to stop the people who prevent this: The rich who earn their money with debts and who reinvest parts of their money into the political system so that nothing ever happens.

Remember: without debts every human on this planet would just have to work 4.8 hours and not 8 hours a day to earn the same amount of money. 40% of everything is debts. Rising.

Btw, guess how Germany managed to lose their debts after world war 2? Yes, debt cut. The same Germany (my country) now wants greek to pay. And guess who are the losers? Yeah, those who have nothing. Fuck this. My Government sucks.
The biggist mistake was to accept Greece as a EU-member before they cleaned their own house from corruption and gangster families like the Papandreos, Karamanlis etc. The western alliance/USA was too eager to accept a number of bankrupt eastern countries to extend the EU-NATO area against Russia. I would not be surprised if Greece is turning its back to Europe and starting cooperation with Russia. We never intented to help the greek people but we saved our banks in Berlin, Paris and London. It seems that the american dream (=Project New American Century/world domination ) is not accepted by all European, Asian and southamerican nations.
#15 in 2012 Greece was given a debt haircut, as well as longer debt repayment terms and more amenable rates. The 2014 review was as follows:

"At the last review in May 2014, Greece’s public debt was assessed to be getting back on a path toward sustainability, though it remained highly vulnerable to shocks. By late summer 2014, with interest rates having declined further, it appeared that no further debt relief would have been needed under the November 2012 framework, if the program were to have been implemented as agreed. But significant changes in policies since then—not least, lower primary surpluses and a weak reform effort that will weigh on growth and privatization—are leading to substantial new financing needs."

In other words, Greece had got to a point in 2014 where it would have needed no further financial assistance from other EU members. However, with the election of 2015, and the new policies and U-turn on the 2012 agreement, all serve to put Greece into a much weaker situation than it was in previously.
#17

Here are two interesting interviews. They are each just one page long but they give some interesting insights.

=== 1 ===

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/debt-haircut-for-greece-the-problem-has-only-been-deferred-a-820302.html

Thats an interview with Harald Hau from 2012, regarding the greek debt haircut. Quote:

"The agreed-upon debt haircut is insufficient. No matter what, there will be a second, proper bankruptcy. It will probably take another nine months to three years, but then there will be a really big crisis, both economically and politically. The problem has only been deferred. (...) Greece's debts don't just need to be reduced to 120 percent of gross domestic product, as is now planned, but down to 60 percent."

=== 2 ===

The following interview with Albrecht Ritschl from 2011 is also worth a read. It compares the german debts in 1930 with the debts of Greece today:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/economic-historian-germany-was-biggest-debt-transgressor-of-20th-century-a-769703.html
That's great, but my quote is from an official IMF report published on the 2nd of July, 2015.

It states that it was working and it was policy changes - ie, Syriza - which led to "substantial new financing needs".
The truly aggravating thing is that they can just walk away from their debt and know that in 5 years time - they'll have a functioning economy again. It's aggravating because it's inevitably the ordinary Joe that gets hit through taxes - working 40 hrs+/ week, retiring at 67 (for now) having pensions deferred until later, that are paying for it - not Greek citizens. What about the bail outs of the banks that were about to topple - RBS was effectively nationalised and just when it's starting to pay back it's debt, the politicians privatise it again....Is Joe even allowed to buy the shares? Nope.....
I think Stonecollector hit the nail on the head - I certainly remember there were great concerns at the rate the EU and Eurozone was expanding yet they pressed on anyway....
The national debt in the UK.....1.2 Trillion and we can't even keep up the interest payments on it - the debt continues to get bigger.
We should do a 'Greece' and see how they like it.... :(
#19 So the IMF Report reports that the IMF methods were working. That is good info...

This topic has been archived and can no longer be replied to.