At the midway mark, almost everyone is still in contention. Against such a strong field, you're not going to get many winning opportunities so efficient conversion is crucial. Equally important is the ability to hold any inferior positions. Here's what we can see in their performance so far.
1. Nepomniachtchi conversion 2/2 resistance 1.5/3
Ian has taken a solid 'Press with White, hold with Black' approach. Nevertheless, he has a 100% conversion rate from the two games where he was significantly better. Meanwhile, he's successfully drawn three difficult games as Black against Gukesh, Praggnanandhaa and Nakamura. The combination of these attributes make him a heavy contender to finish first.
2. Praggnanandhaa conversion 2.5/3 resistance 0/1
Praggnanandhaa has played the most exciting chess (except for two quiet draws against the Americans but it's a mark of respect that they steered away from theoretical battles). If he can keep up the high intensity and outcalculate his opponents he is likely to be a strong challenger in the second half.
3. Caruana conversion 1.5/2 resistance 0.5/1
Fabiano didn't make the most of his game against Nakamura and was perhaps lucky to beat Abasov. But the good player is always lucky and he and Ian remain the only two who are undefeated.
4. Gukesh conversion 2.5/4
Gukesh could be the sole leader if he'd made the most of his positions against Ian and Alireza. But the latter turned against him in the blink of an eyelid and he even went on to lose.
5. Vidit conversion 3/4 resistance 0/2
Vidit has had a topsy-turvy tournament, creating chances for both himself and his opponent. The game against Nakamura is probably the highlight of the first half and shows how dangerous it is to underestimate him.
6. Nakamura conversion 1.5/2 resistance 0.5/1
Hikaru has had a solid tournament and needs more winning chances to make an impact in the second half.
7. Firouzja and Abasov
While mathematically still possible winners, they're more likely to be kingmakers. Nijat has reached decent positions even in the three games that he lost while Alireza has hopefully recovered from his tilt.
In the second half, Nepomniachtchi will have 4 whites and 3 blacks and will begin by playing Abasov and Firouzja who are at the bottom. If he picks up points, it's going to be a formidable challenge for anyone else to keep pace and in my mind Ian is the clear favourite to be first. If he does win, making it three Candidates in a row, it will be an incredible achievement. I feel his main challenger will be Praggnanandhaa who appears the most stable of the three Indians. Plus, like Ian, he will have four whites. Fabiano, meanwhile, cannot be counted out although he has struggled to create winning chances and will have four blacks.
1. Nepomniachtchi conversion 2/2 resistance 1.5/3
Ian has taken a solid 'Press with White, hold with Black' approach. Nevertheless, he has a 100% conversion rate from the two games where he was significantly better. Meanwhile, he's successfully drawn three difficult games as Black against Gukesh, Praggnanandhaa and Nakamura. The combination of these attributes make him a heavy contender to finish first.
2. Praggnanandhaa conversion 2.5/3 resistance 0/1
Praggnanandhaa has played the most exciting chess (except for two quiet draws against the Americans but it's a mark of respect that they steered away from theoretical battles). If he can keep up the high intensity and outcalculate his opponents he is likely to be a strong challenger in the second half.
3. Caruana conversion 1.5/2 resistance 0.5/1
Fabiano didn't make the most of his game against Nakamura and was perhaps lucky to beat Abasov. But the good player is always lucky and he and Ian remain the only two who are undefeated.
4. Gukesh conversion 2.5/4
Gukesh could be the sole leader if he'd made the most of his positions against Ian and Alireza. But the latter turned against him in the blink of an eyelid and he even went on to lose.
5. Vidit conversion 3/4 resistance 0/2
Vidit has had a topsy-turvy tournament, creating chances for both himself and his opponent. The game against Nakamura is probably the highlight of the first half and shows how dangerous it is to underestimate him.
6. Nakamura conversion 1.5/2 resistance 0.5/1
Hikaru has had a solid tournament and needs more winning chances to make an impact in the second half.
7. Firouzja and Abasov
While mathematically still possible winners, they're more likely to be kingmakers. Nijat has reached decent positions even in the three games that he lost while Alireza has hopefully recovered from his tilt.
In the second half, Nepomniachtchi will have 4 whites and 3 blacks and will begin by playing Abasov and Firouzja who are at the bottom. If he picks up points, it's going to be a formidable challenge for anyone else to keep pace and in my mind Ian is the clear favourite to be first. If he does win, making it three Candidates in a row, it will be an incredible achievement. I feel his main challenger will be Praggnanandhaa who appears the most stable of the three Indians. Plus, like Ian, he will have four whites. Fabiano, meanwhile, cannot be counted out although he has struggled to create winning chances and will have four blacks.